– Steve Hitchen
Taking the Seminole into diesel skies is a logical move for Piper. They've had plenty of experience now with the Archer DX, and if the PA-44 airframe is to carry Piper into the modern era, it needs to be a competitive offering to Diamond's all conquering DA42. But just as Diamond themselves have struggled to topple the Cirrus goliath, so too Piper will have a hard fight to get back market share lost to Austria. Vero Beach is estimating potential sales of 25-40 Seminole DX airframes annually, which is not so ambitious when you consider they delivered 26 Seminoles last year. So, is Piper targeting a share of the 56 DA42s shipped last year, or will DX growth come out of the avgas-powered PA-44 customer base? The battle also may not be about engines, but about build. The Seminole is traditional metal, whereas the DA42 is composite. Both have their upsides and downsides, but as a rule it's hard to make a metal aeroplane match the max TAS of a composite one, all things being equal. All things, however, are not equal: this is also a battle between the Deltahawk and Austro powerplants. I find it interesting that a Seminole DX with Continental engines hasn't been mooted publicly before, leading to us believing that Piper considers the Deltahawk the better option. A diesel Seminole may never vanquish the DA42, but Piper is giving it a fighting chance.
The FAA surprised most commentators at Oshkosh when they released the new MOSAIC rules earlier this week. Based on projections at Sun 'n' Fun in April, most of us were predicting August-September. But in the end, the only thing that mattered was that the rules were delivered before November, after which the process by US law would have had to start again. Now we can see what the light sport aircraft of the future will look like, and first glance paints a very impressive picture. The two biggest shakers are that the arbitrary MTOW has been removed and replaced with a stall speed that can be as high as 61 KCAS, and new technology in power plants and avionics can be adopted. LSA manufacturers can design for performance and safety rather than weight. LSAs will be transformed from small aeroplanes with marginal utility to very practical and capable GA machines. Previously, factory-built LSAs couldn't run the Rotax 914, 915 or 916 engines because turbo-chargers weren't allowed. Mating these engines with beefed up airframes will result in aeroplanes that are stronger, faster and will carry more load, meaning the need to offload fuel to stay below MTOW could become a story we tell our grandchildren around the glow of an iPad. It may have another side-effect: new LSAs could trigger the end of the ageing training fleet currently used in GA. These new LSAs could force the retirement of sagging trainers that are nearly 50 years old because the sticker price is expected to be less frightening than like-for-like replacements. Conversations so far have revealed expected sell prices around the $300K mark; roughly half the price of a new PA-28. Just as the original LSAs revolutionised aviation around the world, their 2026 counterparts stand to do so once again.
AMDA withdrawing as the organiser of Airshows Downunder Shellharbour doesn't have to mean the death of the air show, but it does if they can't find someone to take it over. In their announcement, AMDA gave their reason as a desire to redirect support money to other areas of general aviation, and difficulty organising an interstate event. They haven't expanded on what areas of GA they want to focus on, but we will take support that comes our way. It has been an ongoing contention of my own that AMDA is ideally suited to play a much larger role in GA, and recent conversations between AMDA CEO Justin Giddings and me have only encouraged that belief. This move, although not to the advantage of ASDU Shellharbour, could add some lifeblood to sectors of GA that need it. But what of ASDU Shellharbour? AMDA is in discussions with a potential new organiser that have been described as "positive", which bodes well. The outstanding question is whether or not AMDA will assume control again if they can't find a willing organiser to ensure the show goes on in March 2026.
May your gauges always be in the green,
Hitch