The Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) has been unable to determine the exact cause of the crash of an SR22 near Gundaroo NSW that resulted in the death of the four people on board.
An ATSB report released this week revealed that icing is suspected as the most likely contributor, but factors such as the aircraft's stall and spin without the pilot firing the ballistic parachute, and the absence of a Mayday call, are asking more questions than the ATSB is able to answer.
Cirrus SR22 VH-MSF departed Canberra on 6 October 2023 with four people on board, with an IFR flight plan filed for Armidale NSW. Twelve minutes after take-off approaching 10,000 feet AMSL, the aeroplane pitched upward before entering a vertical descent and spin. The aircraft crashed into a paddock with a post-impact fire consuming much of the airframe.
ATSB investigators found no evidence that the pilot attempted to recover the aircraft from the spin, and determined that icing was predicted for the altitude the Cirrus was passing through at the time. Tracking data showed that the aircraft deviated to the left of its planned track passing 7000 feet, then passed through the track again to the right shortly before stalling.
ATSB Chief Commissioner Angus Mitchell said extensive damage from the collision and post‑impact fire limited the ATSB’s ability to determine the circumstances preceding the accident.
“The lack of available evidence made this investigation extremely challenging and, unfortunately–particularly given the tragic loss of four lives–limited the findings the ATSB could make," he said.
“The ATSB considered several scenarios to establish the reason for the deviations in flight track, the subsequent stall, the absence of any recovery actions, and the non-deployment of the aircraft’s parachute system.
“These included in-flight icing, pilot incapacitation, and technical issues with the aircraft, but the lack of available evidence could not definitively support or dismiss any of these hypotheses.”
The area forecast at the time predicted SCT CU/SC 5000/8000 with a freezing level of 5000. MSF was not fitted with anti-ice equipment and was not approved for flight into known icing (FIKI).
Two other aircraft in the area at the time, an SR22 tracking from Wagga Wagga to Moruya and a Virgin Australia 737 inbound to Canberra both activated anti-icing systems when passing through the area where the crash occurred.
Despite the likelihood of icing being a factor, the ATSB has been unable to definitively attribute it as a cause of the crash. All other potential causes such as incapacitation and structural failure were considered without any conclusions possible.
“Unfortunately, due in part to the significant post-impact fire limiting the collection of evidence, the circumstances preceding the stall and this tragic accident could not be conclusively determined,” Mitchell said.
The full investigation report is on the ATSB website.