I'll ask the hackneyed old question about optimism verses pessimism: is the glass half-full or half-empty? Psychologists seem reluctant to accept the obvious answer, which is actually more reflective of the real world ... it's both! I have my own creative answer: it depends on what it was before. If the glass was once full and water was poured out, then it is half empty. If it was empty to begin with then filled only half way to the top, then the glass is half full. Right? And that, my aviation mates, is why I am looking at regulatory change with a half-full glass. Before the safety regulation review the aviation community had very little reason for optimism; not only did we not have a good relationship with CASA, but also we had no reason to hope there would ever be one. Now we have hope, so that's more water in the glass than before. That hope was in the form of a better CASA board and directives handed down from the minister to make real the recommendations of the Forsyth Report. All this is progress to me, which is a lot more than we ever had under any previous federal government. Provided the water level keeps rising, albeit slowly, I will continue to see the glass as half full.
I've heard stories that we are not getting any progress in the attitudes of Flying Operations Inspectors (FOIs). Head-shaking tales of what could be considered blind interference from people who display a staggering degree of ignorance abound still. More than any other sign of progress, we are looking for a change in attitude from the FOIs all around ... failing that, we're looking for a change in FOIs. If you've got a story to tell, please let me know about it either via phone 0447 636 450 or e-mail stevehitchen@yaffa.com.au. Confidentiality is assured because we know the regulator has abused your feedback in the past.
We've done an interesting analysis of the low-end of the jet market, which shows that the smaller jets–the Phenom 100 and Citation Mustang–aren't faring as well as their bigger siblings. The real weevil in the flour is obviously the Cirrus jet, which will be battling the other two for market share at the low end. Everyone in the industry is keen for the SF50 to be certified, if only so we can finally see what impact it's going to have. But the room has an elephant, one that many thought had died some time ago: the Diamond D-Jet. Canned for lack of an investor in March 2013, Diamond is watching the room from the corner before deciding whether or not to go unto the breeches once more. If they do charge back in, the word is that it will be redesigned to have two engines, but on the strength of the sales for its competitors, Diamond may struggle to find the much-needed investor.
The Australian Aviation Associations Forum has made a strong suggestion that the federal government needs to send David Forsyth to find out how the reform progress is really going inside CASA. To me, this shows a bit of exasperation on TAAAF's behalf. They've been calling for expedited changes within the regulator for some time, and obviously now suspect some internal issues are holding things up. Yes, by all means send Forsyth in, but what would be his datum to take measurements by? Is there a program for reform speed to compare with? To check performance, you first need performance data, and I don't think there is anything such out there; certainly not in the public domain.
May your gauges always be in the green,
Hitch